Degrees Create Polarized Earnings Outcomes

Analyses in the US and UK show that while graduates are over‑represented among high earners, a surprisingly large share fall far below earnings expectations: only ~10% of graduates are in the absolute bottom quartile, but about one in three are in the bottom bracket when measured against reasonable expectations. That pattern implies degrees now produce a wider spread of outcomes rather than reliably lifting everyone above expected earnings. — If degrees produce more extreme, less predictable economic trajectories, policy on higher education, student advising, and social safety nets must adapt to rising outcome variance and changing credential signals.