Demography Explains GDP Divergence

Cross‑country per‑capita gaps can be driven as much (or more) by differential population dynamics—fertility, age structure and recent cohort growth—as by short‑term policy differences. In South Asia, rapid population growth in Pakistan since the 1950s has mechanically depressed GDP per capita compared with India despite comparable aggregate performance. — Recognizing demography as a first‑order explanatory variable changes development priorities: fertility, schooling and youth employment become central to closing income gaps and to forecasting geopolitical trajectories.