Disapproval Intensity Predicts Vulnerability

When a president’s disapprovers are disproportionately 'strong' while approvers are weaker, approval numbers understate the electoral and governing risk. High negative intensity (e.g., 82% of disapprovers strongly disapprove vs 57% of approvers strongly approve) foreshadows greater mobilization against the incumbent, vulnerability in swing contests, and harder politics for passing policy even if headline approval is only moderately negative. — Tracking not just net approval but the strength‑of‑feeling asymmetry gives earlier, more actionable signals about electoral risk and policy paralysis than headline averages alone.