The article notes the U.S. dollar is about 10% weaker this year, offsetting much of the S&P 500’s gains for foreign investors. With profits flat and investment down, it argues widespread market rallies reflect liquidity and dollar hedging rather than AI-driven productivity. This reframes the risk as future costs from U.S. deficit-fueled spending and currency weakness.
— It challenges a dominant narrative about AI-led prosperity by emphasizing currency-adjusted returns and fiscal-driven liquidity as the true drivers of asset prices.
John Rapley
2025.10.01
100% relevant
Claim that investors are hedging dollar exposure and that the dollar’s ~10% YTD decline ‘cancels out’ much of U.S. equity gains while global and commodity rallies soar.
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