Drafts Overvalue Potential, Undervalue Production

A data-driven NBA draft model (PRISM) finds teams systematically prefer high‑ceiling prospects over players with stronger current production, producing predictable misses. This reflects a broader organizational bias where evaluators prize imagined upside more than demonstrated performance. — If true beyond basketball, the pattern explains recurring failures in hiring, venture funding, and public appointments where 'potential' is favored over demonstrable results.