Election‑timed 'last chance' strikes

Political actors in Israel and the United States may be incentivized to press for or publicly threaten a decisive military action against Iran timed to domestic electoral cycles or leadership transitions. That dynamic can convert tactical coercion into strategic escalation, raising the risk of broader conflict and of entangling allied ground forces. — If true, this explains how electoral calendars and domestic political signaling can materially increase the odds of major‑power involvement in a regional war.