Elite Pusillanimity Sparks Civil Strife

Western states' political fragility now stems not only from opposing factions but from retreating elites who fail to provide credible authority and coordination; that elite inaction raises the probability that localized political violence will escalate into broader civil conflict. The claim reframes civil‑war risk as a governance‑style failure (leadership withdrawal) rather than classic explanations like poverty or ethnic fragmentation. — If elites' unwillingness to act is a core driver of domestic violence, policymakers must focus on restoring credible institutional leadership and coordination rather than only policing or foreign policy.