Epistemic Luck over Deliberation

Updated: 2026.01.05 24D ago 1 sources
Most people’s correct beliefs arise not from individual, rigorous deduction but from contingent deference — trusting institutions, experts, or reputational cues. That means accuracy often depends on institutional selection mechanisms (who gets platformed, whose consensus is visible) more than on ordinary citizens’ reasoning. — If true, public debate should shift from praising individual contrarian reasoning to strengthening transparent, auditable mechanisms for expert selection, provenance, and institutional trustworthiness.

Sources

Your December Questions, Answered (1 of 2)
Jesse Singal 2026.01.05 100% relevant
Singal’s example comparing how he defers to NASA’s explanation of why the sky is blue and his broader reflection that being ‘right’ often amounts to picking whom to trust rather than doing an independent, airtight inference.
← Back to All Ideas