Exit polls misread turnout shifts

Exit polls estimate who voted rather than observe the electorate, so they systematically misattribute vote swings when turnout changes across groups. That makes early subgroup narratives (e.g., 'X demographic swung to Y') particularly fragile on election night and often corrected only after voter‑file or census follow‑ups. — If media and analysts stop treating exit‑poll subgroup claims as authoritative, they will avoid misleading narratives that shape public perception and campaign behavior on election night.