Americans’ January forecasts about Trump’s second term diverge sharply from what they now report just months later: many more now say there’s been greater political violence (68% vs 30% who predicted it) and domestic military force (69% vs 47% predicted), while jobs swung the other way (38% predicted more jobs; only 20% now say so). The pattern suggests rapid narrative revision as events unfold.
— Understanding how quickly expectations are rewritten into perceived realities clarifies accountability and the dynamics by which publics evaluate administrations.
Arnold Kling
2026.10.03
85% relevant
The article gives a clear historical example of expectations changing instantly in response to a rhetorical cue (Greenspan’s phrase) and a prior briefing (Campbell & Shiller), showing how market beliefs and prices can be triggered by signals rather than slow fundamental revision — exactly the dynamic captured by the existing idea.
Lakshya Jain
2026.09.17
72% relevant
The article describes how expert forecasters' skepticism reflects prior expectations shaped by disappointing cycles, while models stick to current polling inputs; this is a concrete instance of expectations adjusting (expert judgments) to fit historical events even when real‑time data (models) tells a different story.
Alex Tabarrok
2026.09.15
80% relevant
The article documents that the market bottom aligned with the Fed's unlimited‑QE announcement rather than with improving epidemiological data, which is a concrete instance of expectations re‑anchoring to a policy event (the Fed action) rather than to the underlying health reality.
Nate Silver
2026.09.12
65% relevant
Silver notes that model updates (likely‑voter adjustments and expert ratings) and recent polls produced an expectation adjustment — Democrats regained and exceeded prior win probabilities — illustrating how new events/polls recalibrate expectations rather than always indicate structural change.
Tyler Cowen
2026.09.06
85% relevant
Tyler Cowen quotes NYU Stern researcher Nate Witkin asking why observable market prices for cyber insurance are declining despite claims that AI increases cyber risk — a direct instance of the broader idea that people construct risk narratives which don't align with asset prices (Cowen: 'I have the most remarkable ... macro risk story ... does not correlate with any observed asset market prices').
Nate Silver
2026.04.21
52% relevant
Silver hints at expectation and timing effects — earlier polls conducted before geopolitical shocks or before approval declines can anchor aggregates, and public/pollster expectations about turnout (RV vs LV) change how new information is absorbed into polling averages.
2026.04.14
75% relevant
The poll illustrates the broader idea that people’s expectations and reports about empirical events (local gas prices) align with prior political commitments (war support, party/MAGA identity), producing perception feedback that can reshape political attitudes and media narratives.
Tyler Cowen
2026.03.31
70% relevant
The article (via the AEJ paper) documents that students hold systematically optimistic beliefs about degree completion and shows those expectations meaningfully drive enrollment and welfare outcomes; this is a concrete instance of how expectations (not just fundamentals) reshape economic choices and policy effects.
2025.10.09
100% relevant
YouGov results comparing January 2025 predictions to October 2025 perceptions across political violence, domestic military force, and jobs.