Americans’ January forecasts about Trump’s second term diverge sharply from what they now report just months later: many more now say there’s been greater political violence (68% vs 30% who predicted it) and domestic military force (69% vs 47% predicted), while jobs swung the other way (38% predicted more jobs; only 20% now say so). The pattern suggests rapid narrative revision as events unfold.
— Understanding how quickly expectations are rewritten into perceived realities clarifies accountability and the dynamics by which publics evaluate administrations.
2026.04.14
75% relevant
The poll illustrates the broader idea that people’s expectations and reports about empirical events (local gas prices) align with prior political commitments (war support, party/MAGA identity), producing perception feedback that can reshape political attitudes and media narratives.
Tyler Cowen
2026.03.31
70% relevant
The article (via the AEJ paper) documents that students hold systematically optimistic beliefs about degree completion and shows those expectations meaningfully drive enrollment and welfare outcomes; this is a concrete instance of how expectations (not just fundamentals) reshape economic choices and policy effects.
2025.10.09
100% relevant
YouGov results comparing January 2025 predictions to October 2025 perceptions across political violence, domestic military force, and jobs.