Treat strategic semiconductor export controls as an active national‑security industrial policy that trades off short‑term commercial openness for a sustained qualitative advantage in frontier AI compute. The policy buys time by denying rivals access to best‑in‑class accelerators (e.g., Nvidia H200), preserving a multi‑year training and inference lead that underwrites military and economic leverage.
— If recognized, this reframes export controls from narrow trade tools into central levers of tech competition, affecting tariffs, investment screening, alliance coordination, and AI governance.
Noah Smith
2026.01.02
100% relevant
Noah Smith cites the December 2025 H200 licensing controversy and Institute for Progress estimates showing orders‑of‑magnitude US compute advantages contingent on restricting chip exports.
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