Extreme-scenario retreat

Updated: 2025.08.16 6M ago 2 sources
Move away from implausible high-end emissions scenarios (e.g., RCP8.5/SSP7.0) toward observed-trend-aligned baselines in research and policy. — Recalibrates climate risk communication, cost-benefit analyses, and regulatory justifications, affecting public trust and priority-setting.

Sources

"Not Gold Standard Science"
Roger Pielke Jr. 2025.08.16 80% relevant
The post reiterates that RCP8.5/worst-case scenarios were misused as 'business as usual' and that actual emissions have tracked more optimistic paths, a core element in moving policy and communication away from implausible high-end scenarios.
Emissions Scenarios, CWG Fact Check 1
Roger Pielke Jr. 2025.08.03 100% relevant
The article argues observed CO2 paths are below SSP7.0 and even SSP2-4.5 and calls this shift the most important evolution in climate science, urging updates to the endangerment finding accordingly.
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