Favorable polls, party self‑sabotage

Even when national indicators (opponent low approval, a lead on the generic ballot) favor one side, messy primaries, public implosions by high-profile candidates, and poor vetting can flip expected outcomes. Parties need candidate-management, primary rules, and coordination to convert a good macro environment into actual wins. — This reframes midterm forecasting from only ‘national environment’ to the interaction between macro conditions and party-level candidate discipline, implying concrete fixes (primary reform, vetting, messaging) that affect election strategy and governance.