Federal Focus on Autism Rates Misplaced

Policymakers (here, HHS under RFK Jr.) are emphasizing explanation of rising autism rates, but longstanding measurement problems—changing diagnostic criteria, registry age/cohort biases, and differential mortality—mean investigating 'why rates rose' risks chasing artifacts rather than improving services or standardizing diagnostics. A pragmatic alternative is to prioritize auditable surveillance improvements and service capacity while treating historical trend questions with methodological caution. — If true, this reframes a high‑visibility federal priority from etiological sleuthing to fixing surveillance and care gaps, which affects budgets, public expectations, and political accountability.