Re-estimating cohort fertility with dynamic panels that include lagged fertility shows most early-life factors vanish, but the male‑to‑female education ratio remains predictive. Negative coefficients on this ratio in childhood windows imply that cohorts with relatively higher female education have higher completed fertility. This reframes the education–fertility link as sensitive to gender balance, not just years of schooling.
— If relative female education boosts fertility, pronatal and education policies should target gender balance rather than assuming female schooling suppresses births.
Davide Piffer
2025.08.29
100% relevant
The article reports significant negative coefficients on the male‑to‑female education ratio (e.g., ≈ –0.52, p=0.012 for ages 0–18; ≈ –1.04, p=0.035 for ages 0–25) using system GMM with lagged completed cohort fertility.
Davide Piffer
2025.08.29
93% relevant
Davide Piffer’s dynamic panel (system GMM) estimates find lagged cohort fertility ≈1.0 while the male‑to‑female education ratio has a consistently negative coefficient in childhood exposure windows (0–14/0–18/0–25), meaning relatively higher female education is associated with higher completed fertility—exactly the claim in the existing idea.
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