Applying the breeder’s equation to General Social Survey data and reasonable heritability estimates shows fertility differences between self‑identified conservatives and liberals project to tiny ideological shifts (≈0.1 standard deviations per century; generously <0.21 SD). Even recent cohort increases in the fertility–conservatism correlation produce small changes that cannot plausibly 'outbreed' cultural or political forces within a few generations.
— This undercuts determinist talking points that predict imminent political realignment from 'conservative breeding' and reframes demographic arguments used in culture‑war and electoral strategy debates.
Author Sebastian Jensen's breeder’s‑equation projection using GSS survey measures of self‑reported 1–7 political placement, reported selection differentials, and a 45% heritability assumption.