Fertility Won’t Flip Political Balance

Updated: 2026.04.13 2H ago 1 sources
Applying the breeder’s equation to General Social Survey data and reasonable heritability estimates shows fertility differences between self‑identified conservatives and liberals project to tiny ideological shifts (≈0.1 standard deviations per century; generously <0.21 SD). Even recent cohort increases in the fertility–conservatism correlation produce small changes that cannot plausibly 'outbreed' cultural or political forces within a few generations. — This undercuts determinist talking points that predict imminent political realignment from 'conservative breeding' and reframes demographic arguments used in culture‑war and electoral strategy debates.

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Conservative breeding revolution: not happening
Sebastian Jensen 2026.04.13 100% relevant
Author Sebastian Jensen's breeder’s‑equation projection using GSS survey measures of self‑reported 1–7 political placement, reported selection differentials, and a 45% heritability assumption.
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