Fiscal Rules Outsource Policy to Forecasters

By pledging that debt must be 'falling by the end of the parliament,' the UK Treasury has effectively handed day‑to‑day policy space to Office for Budget Responsibility projections. As OBR models revise, 'black holes' and 'headroom' appear or vanish, driving budgets and crowding out strategic judgment. The result is performative fiscal stewardship dictated by model updates rather than priorities. — This shows how independent fiscal councils and rigid rules can shift democratic decision‑making to statistical models, narrowing accountability and paralysing action amid uncertainty.