DESI’s 3–5σ 'evolving dark energy' result assumes the discrepancy with ΛCDM is resolved by letting dark energy vary over time. But sigma levels are conditional on that modeling choice; alternative parameterizations or systematics could erase the signal. Treat headline certainty in cosmology as within‑model, not absolute truth.
— It cautions that statistical certainties touted in high‑profile science often reflect model assumptions, urging media and policymakers to demand model‑robustness checks before declaring paradigm shifts.
eugyppius
2025.09.02
62% relevant
The piece rebuts Stefan Homburg’s 'statistically almost impossible' claim by highlighting how probability depends on assumptions (number of AfD candidates, age distribution) and offers a back‑of‑envelope 1‑in‑200–1‑in‑250 estimate—illustrating that 'improbable' signals hinge on the chosen model.
Ethan Siegel
2025.09.02
80% relevant
The article cautions that DESI’s evidence for evolving dark energy may reflect an assumption baked into the model and suggests an alternative reconciliation via early supermassive stars, aligning with the point that headline certainties in cosmology depend on model parameterizations.
2025.09.01
77% relevant
Like cosmology claims that hinge on specific parameterizations, the article shows ancient GDP per‑capita figures (e.g., Roman Italy at $1,407 in 2011 PPP) are products of modeling choices and sparse proxies, cautioning that the 'hockey stick' is a within‑model result rather than direct measurement.
Ethan Siegel
2025.08.29
100% relevant
DESI Collaboration’s claim of evolving dark energy vs. George Efstathiou’s critique and Ethan Siegel’s argument that the 'evolution' is likely an artifact of assumptions.