Foggy Windshield Statecraft

Treat high‑stakes decisions as actors in the past experienced them: under radical uncertainty, with incomplete motives and ambiguous evidence. This historical sensibility resists both conspiracy‑seeking and overconfident models, favoring plural narratives and contingent judgment. — It urges policymakers and analysts to replace deterministic analogies and data‑fetish with methods tuned to uncertainty, improving decisions in crises.