Because agencies adopt probabilistic forecast tournaments with Brier scoring, budget priorities shift. Institutionalizing calibrated forecasting links analysis to decisions, improves accountability, and reallocates resources.
— Makes government decisions more falsifiable and comparable, supporting oversight, learning, and better allocation across security and domestic programs.
Robin Hanson
2026.09.18
85% relevant
Hanson’s proposal to use futures/market prices as signals of group adaptive success is a direct extension of the existing idea that prediction markets or forecasting tournaments can be institutionalized to guide policy decisions; he moves from 'use forecasts to discipline policy' to 'treat market prices themselves as moral authority for cultural choices.'
Robin Hanson
2025.08.20
80% relevant
By asserting that elites only defer to prices in narrow business domains and not on norms, the piece highlights an adoption barrier for forecast-based decision tools—undercutting the institutional promise of tournaments and markets to steer policy.
Santi Ruiz
2025.06.25
100% relevant
Matheny describes IARPAs forecasting programs that competitively score teams and defund underperformers to improve decision usefulness.
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