Because agencies adopt probabilistic forecast tournaments with Brier scoring, budget priorities shift. Institutionalizing calibrated forecasting links analysis to decisions, improves accountability, and reallocates resources.
— Makes government decisions more falsifiable and comparable, supporting oversight, learning, and better allocation across security and domestic programs.
Robin Hanson
2025.08.20
80% relevant
By asserting that elites only defer to prices in narrow business domains and not on norms, the piece highlights an adoption barrier for forecast-based decision tools—undercutting the institutional promise of tournaments and markets to steer policy.
Santi Ruiz
2025.06.25
100% relevant
Matheny describes IARPAs forecasting programs that competitively score teams and defund underperformers to improve decision usefulness.
← Back to All Ideas