Foreign Raids Fuel Domestic Tribalization

Updated: 2026.01.06 22D ago 2 sources
When a state undertakes a dramatic extraterritorial operation (kidnapping, decapitation, seizure of assets), the immediate domestic effect is often to harden partisan identity: supporters frame it as decisive leadership and justice, opponents as illegality and executive overreach. That polarization becomes a feedback loop — legal arguments and international norms are treated as partisan tools rather than neutral restraints — increasing lawfare, protest choreography, and institutional distrust. — Understanding this dynamic matters because governments will weigh the short‑term strategic benefits of kinetic actions against predictable, long‑lasting domestic political fragmentation and undermining of international institutions.

Sources

The Venezuelan stock market
Tyler Cowen 2026.01.06 65% relevant
Cowen flags that actions were 'immoral' and possibly unlawful while producing positive material outcomes; this ties to the existing idea that dramatic external operations create domestic political cascades and contested narratives — here both in the U.S. (legality debate) and in Venezuela (who benefits, legitimacy), with markets reflecting an immediate material verdict.
when "the system" becomes "the enemy"
el gato malo 2026.01.04 100% relevant
The article’s description of the US snatch of Maduro and the polarized reactions—leftist outrage framed as 'orange man bad', EU appeals to international law, and domestic celebration in Venezuelan streets—exemplifies this mechanism.
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