Foreign Strikes Can Rupture Populist Coalitions

When a populist leader orders military action that contradicts the movement’s foreign‑policy instincts, that single decision can break the tacit bargain between leader and base and end the movement’s coherence. This is not just a policy disagreement but a realignment trigger: media figures, influencers, and rival factions can seize it to withdraw legitimacy and reframe the coalition. — If correct, it reframes how analysts should judge the durability of populist movements — by watching single high‑stakes decisions, not just routine rhetoric or electoral performance.