Foster Care Lowers Later Crime

Using quasi-random assignment of child-welfare investigators, Jason Baron and Max Gross compare children who were placed in foster care to similar children who stayed with parents. They find placement reduces subsequent criminal involvement, contradicting the common 'foster care-to-prison pipeline' claim. The result suggests the observed correlation is not causal and that removal can be protective in some cases. — It reframes child-welfare and crime policy by replacing a powerful slogan with causal evidence that points toward when removal may improve public safety and life outcomes.