People reason more accurately about rare events when information is presented as counts of whole objects (e.g., “8 in 100”) rather than abstract probabilities or percentages. This cognitive bias reflects evolved perception of discrete events and suggests simple formatting changes can materially improve decisions in medicine, courts, and policymaking.
— If public agencies, clinicians, and journalists adopt frequency‑based communication, it could reduce misestimation of risks (e.g., false positives), change consent quality for screenings, and shift public debate on health and safety policy.
Rob Kurzban
2026.09.16
100% relevant
The article's mammography example (1% base rate, 80% sensitivity, 9.6% false positive — expressed as 'of 10,000 women') directly demonstrates how frequency framing produces the intuitive Bayesian answer (~8%).
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