Gerrymanders Are Failing to Protect Republicans

Final‑week modeling and high‑quality polls show Democrats poised to flip the House and pick up multiple Senate seats despite recent redistricting in Republican states. Local factors (scandals, demographic shifts, issue salience like data‑center opposition) plus turnout dynamics are overwhelming map advantages in several key races. — If durable, this pattern undercuts the assumed immunity that partisan maps provide and will reshape redistricting strategy, turnout investment, and how parties prioritize resources.