The IMF projects government debt worldwide will surpass total global GDP by 2029, the highest ratio since the late 1940s. Rich countries face rising defense and aging‑related costs, limited appetite for tax hikes, and higher long‑term yields that reflect investor caution.
— This raises urgent choices about how democracies will finance the state—through fiscal consolidation, inflation/financial repression, or deferred crises.
msmash
2026.01.09
85% relevant
The NBER paper directly interrogates the common headline metric—debt‑to‑GDP—that underlies projections like the IMF’s claim that global government debt will exceed world GDP; showing alternative indicators (interest/GDP, debt/wealth) diverge weakens simple claims that high debt/GDP alone implies crisis.
Tyler Cowen
2026.01.06
60% relevant
The NBER paper Cowen cites complicates headline narratives like the IMF projection that debt/GDP will exceed global GDP, by showing other indicators (interest‑to‑GDP, debt‑to‑equity) may not support the same alarm; this tempers how aggregate forecasts should be interpreted.
msmash
2025.10.16
100% relevant
IMF warning cited by Semafor: debt on track to exceed 100% of GDP by 2029, with parallels to 1948