Governing‑party trust collapse predicts wave

When voters say their finances worsened under a unified government, trust in the governing party can evaporate quickly and flip issue leadership to the opposition. Large, contemporaneous polls showing double‑digit swings in generic ballots and trust measures signal higher short‑term midterm risk for the party in power. — If true, this gives a simple, testable rule for forecasting midterm outcomes: economic sentiment under a ruling trifecta predicts voter trust and therefore swing size.