States are rewriting statutory ‘off‑ramps’ that pause automatic minimum‑wage increases when jobs fall, by raising the technical threshold and averaging job changes so freezes rarely trigger. New York’s governor proposed switching to a median of 3/6/12‑month job‑change measures and a 0.25% loss threshold — a change that would require a Great‑Recession‑scale downturn to pause hikes.
— If replicated, this design shift removes countercyclical safeguards from wage laws and makes wage increases politically and administratively guaranteed, with implications for employment, inflation, and executive oversight.
Simone Barron
2026.10.29
100% relevant
Governor Kathy Hochul’s proposal to replace a any‑decline trigger (activated by revised BLS data showing ~31,000 job losses through July) with a median-of‑periods test and a 0.25% threshold that would require ~150,000 job losses to freeze the wage.
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