Guards Control Iran’s Succession

Mojtaba Khamenei’s rise shows succession in the Islamic Republic is being shaped by the Revolutionary Guards and hardline clerical networks rather than sudden wartime shifts. The IRGC’s political‑economic conglomerate and the cultivation of a hereditary claim around the Supreme Leader long predate recent conflicts and constrain future policy options. — If succession is effectively managed by the IRGC and allied clerics, Western assumptions about post‑conflict liberalization or moderate transitions are likely misplaced and should reshape diplomatic and contingency planning.