Gulf oil blackout risks global stagflation

An Iran‑centered closure of Gulf exports — removing roughly 30% of world oil output — can trigger inflationary pressure even in a less carbon‑intensive global economy, because the shock arrives when China, the US and Europe are simultaneously weak. The result is a distinct form of downturn: muted compared with 1970s supply‑shock stagflation but still broad enough to blunt fiscal and tax‑cut stimulus and destabilize fragile markets. — Frames Middle East military moves as a macroeconomic tail‑risk that can derail recovery even without 1970s‑style inflation, shifting debate from purely military/ethical terms to concrete economic tradeoffs for policymakers.