H‑1B tariffs drive offshoring

Updated: 2025.09.26 25D ago 2 sources
Treating a $100,000 H‑1B fee like a labor 'tariff' pushes firms to route more work to India, Canada, and Latin America instead of bringing engineers onsite. JPMorgan says the fee wipes out five to six years of per‑engineer profit at typical 10% margins; Morgan Stanley estimates 60% of the cost can be offset by offshoring and selective price hikes, limiting the earnings hit to ~3–4%. Remote delivery, proven at scale since 2020, accelerates the shift. — This reframes high‑skill immigration restriction as an offshoring accelerator, with consequences for U.S. jobs, wages, and reshoring strategies.

Sources

Trump's H-1B Changes Will Backfire
Santi Ruiz 2025.09.26 40% relevant
Both pieces warn that specific H‑1B rule changes can produce perverse outcomes: the listed idea shows a $100k fee would push work offshore, while this article claims wage‑level prioritization will misallocate visas toward body‑shops rather than top talent.
JPMorgan Says $100K 'Prices Out H-1B' as Indian IT Giants May Accelerate Offshoring With Remote Delivery Already Proven at Scale
msmash 2025.09.22 100% relevant
JPMorgan: 'prices out the utility of H‑1B'; Morgan Stanley: 60% offset via offshoring; Indian IT approvals are just 0.2–2.2% of headcount with new approvals under 0.4%.
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