Happiness as Prediction Error

Updated: 2025.10.07 14D ago 2 sources
Happiness is the brief 'positive prediction error' your brain emits when reality exceeds expectations, a learning signal that updates what you value and pursue. As outcomes become familiar and prediction improves, the happiness signal fades even if you still 'want' the thing. Chasing happiness therefore extinguishes it; we actually seek valuable outcomes, not the fleeting error signal itself. — This reframes happiness policy and self‑help by arguing we should optimize for meaningful, valuable pursuits (and novelty/learning environments), not for reported 'happiness' levels.

Sources

Utilitarianism Is Bullshit
David Pinsof 2025.10.07 90% relevant
The author explicitly argues happiness is a brief prediction-error signal that recalibrates expectations rather than an end in itself, mirroring the existing idea’s core claim and using it to question utilitarian ‘maximize happiness’ ethics.
Happiness Is Bullshit Revisited
David Pinsof 2025.02.25 100% relevant
Pinsof’s explicit model: 'Happiness is triggered by a positive prediction error… we stop “liking” the outcome while still continuing to “want” it' and the claim that happiness frequency/intensity should decline with age.
← Back to All Ideas