Hawkish politics cause energy shocks

Partisan decisions to pursue aggressive military pressure in energy‑rich regions systematically raise the probability of disruptive oil and gas supply shocks, which translate into worse near‑term macroeconomic performance. Over repeated cycles, a party that leans toward riskier military brinksmanship can therefore produce a measurable partisan drag on growth and consumer confidence. — If true, voters and policymakers should treat foreign‑policy posture as an economic lever, not just a security or moral issue.