High Turnout Now Helps Republicans

Yglesias argues that today’s likely voters skew Democratic while the people who sit out elections are more pro‑Trump. That’s why Democrats overperform in low‑turnout special elections but can’t port those margins to general elections. Untargeted voter‑registration and GOTV drives may therefore boost Republicans more than Democrats. — This reverses a core strategic belief about turnout, reshaping campaign resource allocation, media narratives about special elections, and the stakes of voting‑rules fights.