Homicide Baseline Matters

Before theorizing why crime rises or falls, analysts should anchor claims to long‑run homicide series and international benchmarks because short windows and selective country comparisons mislead. Homicide is a comparatively reliable metric and can serve as a proxy for serious violent‑crime trends when used with historical context. — Using long‑run and international homicide baselines will reduce policy mistakes and partisan overclaiming about causes (e.g., policing, economic shocks) and better target reforms.