Homicide Rates Are Cyclical, Not Linear

A clear century‑scale homicide time series shows large ups and downs rather than a single long‑term decline or rise; short‑term trends (e.g., the 2020 spike) are embedded in broader cyclical variability. International comparisons show the U.S. sits far above peer democracies on homicide even before recent changes, while its incarceration rate and prisoners‑per‑homicide ratio complicate simple cause–effect policy claims. — Recasting homicide as cyclical changes how policymakers set baselines, interpret recent spikes, and evaluate tradeoffs like incarceration and policing reforms.