If Iran Defeats the United States

An influential hawk (Robert Kagan) argues that the current U.S. confrontation with Iran may already amount to an irreparable strategic defeat: Iran survived a prolonged campaign that removed senior officials yet endured, and control of the Strait of Hormuz would grant Tehran outsized regional leverage. The essay reframes defeat not as temporary setback but as a structural pivot that could strengthen China and Russia, disrupt global energy flows, and change alliance calculations. — Treating a failed U.S. coercive campaign as a possible permanent strategic turning point forces public debate about escalation risks, the limits of military coercion, alliance credibility, and domestic politics of war.