Immediate‑effect assumption skews attribution

Epidemic models that assume each government intervention causes an immediate, discrete change in transmission risk can misattribute declines in transmission to policy steps versus gradual behaviour change. Explicitly flagging and testing the 'immediate effect' assumption should be standard because it materially alters which measures are credited for epidemic control. — Policymakers and the public may over‑credit formal mandates (like lockdowns) if models conflate slow, voluntary behaviour shifts with instant policy effects, affecting future choices about which measures to keep or revive.