Immigrant Fertility Converges in Italy

ISTAT data (2003–2023) show foreign-born women’s total fertility rate fell by nearly one child while natives’ barely moved, making the gap shrink steadily. Regression estimates indicate foreigners’ fertility is declining about ten times faster than natives’, implying convergence by the mid‑2030s if trends hold. This normalizes immigrant fertility toward host-country levels rather than sustaining a large, persistent gap. — It challenges population‑replacement narratives and refocuses policy on overall low fertility and immigration flows/age structure rather than assumed group-level birthrate gaps.