A new AER paper uses a cross‑county, ancestry‑by‑inflow identification strategy to isolate exogenous immigration shocks and finds immigration causally increases local innovation and wages over a five‑year horizon. Its structural model estimates that immigration to the United States since 1965 may have raised aggregate innovation and wages by about 5 percent.
— If robust, this quantifies a positive long‑run economic effect of immigration and sharpens arguments about the costs and benefits of immigration policy.
Tyler Cowen
2026.03.06
100% relevant
Stephen J. Terry et al., American Economic Review paper (summarized in Marginal Revolution) reporting the ancestry × inflow identification strategy and the 5% historical effect estimate.
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