Apollo’s Torsten Slok estimates that with zero net immigration, the U.S. could sustainably add only about 24,000 nonfarm jobs per month, versus 155,000 average in 2015–2024. This reframes monthly payroll numbers: recent growth relies on inflows that expand both labor supply and consumer demand.
— Quantifying immigration’s macro contribution challenges 'jobs taken' narratives and affects targets for growth, monetary policy, and border decisions.
2025.10.07
65% relevant
The article says fewer refugees and the end of temporary legal status pushed meatpackers to automate and raise wages/benefits (Tyson testing AI; JBS pensions), illustrating how reduced inflows change labor supply, compensation, and capital substitution on the ground.
Alex Tabarrok
2025.09.20
70% relevant
By leveraging USCIS’s random H‑1B selection, the cited paper shows micro‑level causal effects: one extra high‑skill worker raises a startup’s five‑year IPO probability by 23% and boosts patents and top‑tier VC. This complements the macro finding that immigration expands labor supply and growth capacity.
msmash
2025.09.19
65% relevant
By sharply raising the cost of skilled visas, the policy would likely lower net inflows, tightening the labor supply that recent job growth has depended on.
Oren Cass
2025.09.05
85% relevant
The piece frames August’s +22,000 payrolls with a steady 4.3% unemployment rate as exactly what you’d expect under aggressive immigration enforcement shrinking the foreign‑born workforce, echoing Torsten Slok’s logic that job growth capacity depends on immigration inflows.
Oren Cass
2025.08.27
78% relevant
Cass argues the immigration surge inflated employment growth and its reversal will slow it, echoing Torsten Slok’s estimate that sustainable job creation depends on immigration flows; both stress that headline payrolls are contingent on net inflows.
Tyler Cowen
2025.08.26
100% relevant
Tyler Cowen cites Slok’s WSJ estimate of a 24,000/month sustainable payroll gain in a no‑immigration counterfactual.
Jordan Weissmann
2025.08.20
82% relevant
The article argues the economy 'needs more people' to avoid low growth and rising debt and critiques claims that deportations boost native employment—directly aligning with Torsten Slok’s estimate that job growth depends on immigration flows.