In‑season ratings trump preseason

In sports with short seasons, iterative model updates that incorporate in‑season performance, injuries and quarterback impacts provide substantially better postseason forecasts than static preseason odds. Models like ELWAY that couple live player models (QBERT) with injury adjustments reveal both the fragility of early consensus and the value of real‑time, provenance‑aware forecasting. — This matters because it shows how algorithmic, continuously updated forecasts can reshape betting markets, media narratives, and public trust in expert preseason claims across any short‑sample domain.