Independents tilt midterms to Democrats

A September 11–14 Economist/YouGov survey of 1,596 U.S. adult citizens (1,461 likely voters after screening and weighting) reports that independents give Democrats a sizeable lead among likely voters heading into the 2026 midterms. The same poll also shows sharp partisan splits on a proposed $5,000 universal payment, skepticism that Trump would deliver it, and high public concern about political violence. — If independents are breaking toward Democrats in likely‑voter models, it reshapes campaign targeting, messaging, and the electoral map ahead of the 2026 midterms.