India’s Quiet Leap to Upper‑Middle Income

India appears to be completing the long, visible step from mass extreme poverty to broadly middle‑class living standards: official indicators show steep poverty decline, HDI gains roughly where China was in the late 2000s, and sustained ~6–8% growth that could double living standards every decade. Unlike narratives that pit India and China as symmetric competitors for hegemonic tech leadership, India’s near‑term task is simpler and plausibly achievable — large‑scale infrastructure, job creation, and social transfers to consolidate gains. — If India indeed transitions to upper‑middle income within a generation, it will reshape global markets, migration flows, geopolitical balance in Asia, and development policy prescriptions for other large, low‑income states.