Instant War Judgments Are Unreliable

Early, confident claims about a war’s meaning — victory, disaster, or strategic collapse — are usually underdetermined by facts in the first days or weeks. Time horizons matter: a temporary disruption (e.g., a Strait of Hormuz closure in week two) has very different policy and economic implications than a sustained disruption months later. — Calling out and resisting premature certainty can reduce policy overreaction, calm markets and publics, and improve deliberation about military and diplomatic options.