Interdiction Fails to Shift Long‑Run Supply

Economic literature and price series show that while prohibition raises illegal‑market prices relative to a legal market, incremental increases in seizures and eradication do not sustain higher consumer prices or reduce consumption; long‑run purity‑adjusted retail prices for many hard drugs have fallen or drifted at low levels even as production and use rise. Temporary interdiction spikes produce short disruptions but the global supply system (production, trafficking networks, adulteration/purity adjustments) adapts, blunting marginal enforcement. — If marginal interdiction cannot durably shrink supply or raise consumer prices, governments should rethink resource allocation toward demand reduction, regulation, harm reduction, and market‑design interventions with better long‑run returns.