A moderate Democrat can buy progressive enthusiasm by adopting or signaling the progressive line on Israel while remaining otherwise centrist, replicating the political function Obama gained from his early Iraq opposition. That single‑issue credibility could create the coalition space that lets a candidate govern more moderately on domestic policy without being rejected by activist opinion leaders.
— This reframes Israel from a foreign‑policy quarrel into a tactical coalition‑building tool that could shape 2028 Democratic nominations and policy tradeoffs.
Matthew Yglesias’ argument that Israel offers the same coalition‑payoff for moderates as Obama’s Iraq opposition (actors: Gavin Newsom, progressive intellectual donors; event: 2028 nomination calculus).