Italy’s Fertility Drop Is Structural

Using ISTAT period and cohort fertility series plus the Bongaarts–Feeney tempo correction, recent declines in Italy (2010–2024) cannot be explained by postponement: tempo‑adjusted TFR fell as much or more than the raw TFR, indicating completed family size is falling, not just being delayed. The pattern is visible both in cohort completed fertility and the collapse of third‑and‑higher births that earlier drove long‑run decline. — If Italy’s fall reflects real reductions in completed family size rather than timing, it alters forecasts for population, pensions, labor supply, and immigration policy and should change how policymakers measure and respond to demographic risk.