Job Forecasts Barely Beat Trends

A new analysis of 80 years of BLS Occupational Outlooks—quantified with help from large language models—finds their growth predictions are only marginally better than simply extrapolating the prior decade. Strongly forecast occupations did grow more, but not by much beyond a naive baseline. This suggests occupational change typically unfolds over decades, not years. — It undercuts headline‑grabbing AI/job-loss projections and urges policymakers and media to benchmark forecasts against simple trend baselines before reshaping education and labor policy.