Late‑September independent swing

A late‑September YouGov/Economist poll finds independents shifting noticeably toward Democratic congressional candidates, increasing the Democrats’ lead among likely voters. The result appears robust to standard weighting and a 3.4% margin of error on the registered/likely sample of 1,429. — If independents consolidate behind Democrats in the closing weeks, it could change campaign messaging, advertising allocation, fundraising, and turnout math for the November midterms.